Who will be the first person to climb a 5.16a/9c+ sport route?
5
100Ṁ7592030
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
41%
Adam Ondra
20%
Seb Bouin
20%
Jakob Schubert
20%
To define "climbed 5.16a", I will say: the climb must be climbed by a serious climber who has climbed at least established 5.15c. The grade must be taken reasonably seriously by the climbing public, media, and elite route climbers. The grade of 5.16a must stand without downgrades for at least 1 full year after the new route/grade is announced.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Alex Honnold successfully free solo Taipei 101 on January 23, 2026?
81% chance
Will DNA be the first sport climb confirmed 9c?
11% chance
Will Silence be the first sport climb confirmed 9c?
68% chance
Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?
56% chance
Will B.I.G. be the first sport climb confirmed 9c?
33% chance
Who will be the first person to climb a V18/9a+ boulder?
Will Will Bosi climb "all" 9A (V17) boulders? [Read description]
19% chance
Will the second ascentionist of Seb Bouin's DNA agree with the 9c grade?
60% chance