Will Hunter Biden be indicted by July 1 2023?
21
341
แน€520
resolved Jun 20
Resolved
YES

Will follow polymarket, their rules are:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hunter Biden, son of US President Joseph Biden, is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between March 20, 2023 and July 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the federal government of the United States (from sources such as https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel, https://www.justice.gov/news), however credible reporting may be used.

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bought แน€1 of NO

Since there will likely be an argument over words, I'd like the market creator to clarify what they mean by "formally charged". For now, the reports are that Biden is pleading guilty to felony charges. There hasn't been any report of an indictment, which requires a grand jury's vote.

bought แน€438 of YES

@NicoDelon The market is clear - it will follow polymarket. What polymarket will do is not so clear.

bought แน€1 of NO

@jack Oh that's right. But there's no link to polymarket. That would be helpful.

bought แน€0 of NO

@NamesAreHard The traders on PolyMarket clearly think this is Yes, right?

bought แน€50 of YES

@BTE I hate those markets. Their title should be "How will Polymarket/Metaculus/etc. resolve...".

predicted NO

@NicoDelon Agreed. The Metaculus ones do it right, and use a branded bot.

@NicoDelon The important part is that Poly includes โ€œotherwise formally chargedโ€

predicted YES

I don't see the problem - the title is fine, and the description clearly specifies the rules and that it resolves according to some other site - it's just a resolution source, same as if you say you'll resolve according to whitehouse.gov - only thing is that it was missing a link.