Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the total number of migrant sex offenders accidentally released from UK prisons by December 31, 2026. 262 prisoners were released in error from April 2024 to March 2025, though not all were sex offenders or migrants. Resolution will be determined by official statements from the UK Prison Service, Home Office, or verified reporting from major news outlets documenting confirmed cases of migrant sex offenders mistakenly released. Each individual must be confirmed as: (1) a convicted sex offender, (2) a migrant/foreign national, and (3) released in error (not through standard release procedures or deportation). Cases where individuals are recaptured do not affect the count—only the initial accidental release matters.

Background

An asylum seeker was accidentally freed rather than deported from HMP Chelmsford in October 2025, triggering significant political scrutiny. A 24-year-old Algerian man was accidentally released from HMP Wandsworth, marking the second high profile case within weeks of a migrant offender being freed. Government statistics released in July showed 262 prisoners were released in error from April 2024 to March 2025, up from 115 in the year to March 2024. Releases in error have been rising year on year since 2021 – going from nine per month on average in 2023, to 17 per month in the period spanning January to June 2024.

Considerations

The definition of "accidentally released" is critical. This excludes prisoners who complete their sentences and are released on licence, or those deported through standard procedures. It specifically refers to administrative errors where individuals are freed when they should have remained in custody or been transferred to immigration detention. The market tracks only confirmed cases of migrant sex offenders; general prisoner releases in error are not counted unless they meet all three criteria above.