Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the UK imposes a formal net migration cap of below 150,000 per year by December 31, 2035. Resolution will be based on official government policy announcements and legislation. The cap must be explicitly stated as a numerical target in government policy documents or legislation. If no such cap is formally imposed by the deadline, the market resolves NO.

For verification, check the UK Home Office official website (https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-visas-and-immigration) and parliamentary records for official policy announcements.

Background

Net migration was 204,000 in the year ending June 2025, a sharp decline from the unusually high levels in 2022 and 2023. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasted in November 2025 that net migration will rise to 327,000 in 2029 and 340,000 in 2030.

The Labour government elected in 2024 has said that it does not want to set a target for net migration. A previous net migration target was never reached and was abandoned at the end of 2019. In May 2025, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer introduced new rules on immigration, supposedly aiming to significantly reduce net migration by approximately 100,000 annually.

Considerations

Current government policy explicitly rejects numerical net migration targets. The OBR's latest forecasts project net migration above 150,000 through 2030 under current policy assumptions, making achievement of a sub-150,000 cap unlikely without major policy shifts. Any such cap would represent a significant reversal of the current government's stated position.

Other Markets:
By 2030: https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/uk-imposes-net-migration-cap-below