Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be reinstated by the end of 2022
Resolved
YES

This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump is allowed to reopen his Twitter account before midnight on the last day of 2022. This can either be his original account, or a new account but one that is clearly run by him and remains unbanned for at least 4 weeks. Apr 25, 12:21pm: for this market to resolve to YES, Trump must *actually* make and use an account. An abstract claim by Twitter or their affiliates that Trump would be allowed back is not sufficient.

For those who feel iffy about to he resolution: explanation here: https://manifold.markets/VivaLaPanda/will-donald-trumps-twitter-account#kQiqjQvJaL9Mxm49yrhd

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KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 100%

@VivaLaPanda where did he Tweet? (I thought it said he had to 'make and use an account' for this to resolve yes, but I don't see him doing that.)

VivaLaPanda avatar

@KatjaGrace https://manifold.markets/VivaLaPanda/will-donald-trumps-twitter-account#IYJSCuhdyqm0EpHO2Ari@KatjaGrace

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 100%

@VivaLaPanda I don't follow - that's a link to here

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 100%

Oh, found other relevant comments.

bingeworthy avatar
bingeworthy
bought Ṁ300 of YES

Does the "remain unbanned for at least 4 weeks" apply only if he creates a new account, or also to the original one that was unbanned? The market isn't clear.

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin
is predicting YES at 100%

@greatnessgreatness Oh I see. The 4 weeks seems to be about a new account.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
sold Ṁ9 of NO
DavidBolin avatar

Well, not closed (needs 4 weeks). But this is Yes.

akhil avatar

@DavidBolin Small doubt since the description says "make and use". @VivaLaPanda do we need some proof of use (like a retweet or like etc.)?

VivaLaPanda avatar

@akhil Hmm, lean towards no proof of use is necessary. I had that requirement in case someone made a @definitelyTrump account or something and claimed it was him, and since the account was dormant it wasn't going to get banned for impersonation.

Filo avatar
Filo
is predicting YES at 95%

@VivaLaPanda Since twitter restored the old Trump's account, this should resolve to YES without further need of proof, is that right?

VivaLaPanda avatar

@Filo Hmm, fair point. I think resolving YES is most in the spirit of the original question

finnhambly avatar
Finn
is predicting NO at 95%

@VivaLaPanda FWIW I betted no on the basis that he might not use his account, as that seems to go against your Apr 25 clarification, but realise that the main question has clearly resolved positively

finnhambly avatar
Finn
is predicting NO at 100%

ah okay I realise now that it's not contradictory — as he's used this account at some point — my bad!

VivaLaPanda avatar

@finnhambly Yeah I think I was kinda unclear and someone people would unfairly lose Mana either way

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 100%

@VivaLaPanda Is there a way of understanding things according to your present description where this is a correct resolution, or are you discarding your amendment and going with the spirit of the unclarified question? If so that seems like the wrong principle of market resolution, even if either way people will unfairly lose manna.

(I also bet on this on the basis of the question as written, given that it didn't seem clear that he would use it.)

jack avatar
Jack
is predicting YES at 100%

I think it is correct if you parse the market description a particular way, which isn't necessarily the most natural way.

This can either be his original account, or a new account but one that is clearly run by him and remains unbanned for at least 4 weeks.

Apr 25, 12:21pm: for this market to resolve to YES, Trump must actually make and use an account. An abstract claim by Twitter or their affiliates that Trump would be allowed back is not sufficient.

"This can either be his original account" -> satisfied, so the new account unbanned for 4 weeks clause is irrelevant

The clause "Trump must actually make and use an account." doesn't apply - he didn't make an account, his old account was restored (as discussed in comments above)

"An abstract claim by Twitter or their affiliates that Trump would be allowed back is not sufficient." could be satisfied by the account be unsuspended - it's not just an abstract claim.

VivaLaPanda avatar

@jack I'm going with the edits, but I realized from other comments that even w/ the edits it's ambiguous: the clause about remaining unbanned was intended to clarify new account creation (to account for ban evasion). The wording sort of implies that, but not very well.

VivaLaPanda avatar

If the account does get banned, I'm happy to reimburse some lost mana, because I feel bad about the ambiguity here, but I feel like this was the most fair resolution given the unfortunate ambiguity (if the account doesn't get banned this is moot)

DavidBolin avatar

This should be closed -- his account is unbanned

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) / Twitter

VivaLaPanda avatar

@DavidBolin

"remains unbanned for at least 4 weeks."

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 100%

@VivaLaPanda Why did the 'remains unbanned for at least 4 weeks' clause not prevent it from being resolved now?

Filo avatar
Filo
bought Ṁ10 of YES
VivaLaPanda avatar

@Filo

"remains unbanned for at least 4 weeks."

DuddleSack avatar
Duddle Sack
is predicting NO at 94%

@Filo Did he actually use it though?

Lorenzo avatar
Lorenzo
bought Ṁ200 of YES
noumena avatar
Rachel Shu
bought Ṁ70 of YES
dunningkruger avatar

@noumena u betting on the 10 point diff?? i mean i guess youre right, but how much of a margin is there??

Filo avatar
Filo
bought Ṁ10 of NO

@jakobtorp free money is free money

intellectronica avatar
intellectronica
bought Ṁ50 of YES
The new owners of Twitter seem to believe in free speech even if it's annoying.
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ10 of YES
I've got some NO money on the other prediction market for this, which is not looking so great now.
OptimizationProcess avatar
Optimization Process
bought Ṁ10 of YES
(Arbitraging against https://manifold.markets/SG/will-trump-be-allowed-back-on-twitt )
EnopoletusHarding avatar
Somebody make markets on the following three accounts (all vastly more important than Trump): Milo Ricky Vaughn TEN_GOP I've run out of money so far.
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ10 of YES
This is one of the first things I expect Elon to do
Sjlver avatar
@Austin possible... Yet it's also unclear whether Elon will actually own Twitter in 2022.