Will California wildfire acreage be greater in 2023 than in 2022
Jan 1

Stats: https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/

2022 was 363,917 acres (provisional)

Authoritative number is whatever is most up to date from CalFire at close (using the YTD cumulative state and fed numbers as above)

Update: I'll resolve the market after the finalized 2023 numbers come out (which is some time after market close).

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PeterKolyvski avatar
Peter Kolyvskipredicts NO

By finalized numbers, are you referring to the yearly reports they provide under Past Wildfire Activity Statistics on the linked page?

JimAusman avatar
Jimbought Ṁ10 of NO

@drewski It’s funny how different these two makers are at now.

zQ4Z82W avatar
zQ4Z82Wbought Ṁ40 of YES

Looks like the 2022 number has changed significantly since the provisional number was issued (it's currently 143,208). For market resolution, which number will be used for 2022? 363,917? Or whatever the latest 2022 estimate is?

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPandapredicts NO

@zQ4Z82W Whatever the latest estimate is

Jeremyh avatar
JHbought Ṁ65 of NO

2022 wildfires -- 363,939 acres
AccuWeather meteorologists predict that in 2023, 400,000 to 1 million acres will burn in California.

As of June 11, 2023, a total of 1,392 fires have burned a total of 2,670 acres (1,080 hectares)
National inter-agency fire potential outlook: below-average wildland fires in California from June to September 2023

Year-to-date acres burned

for the US is 51% of the 10-year average, with a below average number of fires, about 82% of

Below normal significant fire potential continues for the mountains and foothills of California during

June before retreating to the Sierra in July and just the southern Sierra during August and

PREDICTION: Despite a switch from El Nino to La Nina weather patterns and increasing warming, this year had excess precipitation -> unlikely that fire acreage will exceed 2022 levels.

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPandabought Ṁ75 of NO

Ton of rain and snowpack this year, that combined with high risk areas already having burnt has me adjusting down here