Stats: https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/
2022 was 363,917 acres (provisional)
Authoritative number is whatever is most up to date from CalFire at close (using the YTD cumulative state and fed numbers as above)
Update: I'll resolve the market after the finalized 2023 numbers come out (which is some time after market close).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,659 | |
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| 3 | Ṁ707 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ301 |
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⚠AFK Creator - Pinged ~3 days ago
📢Resolved to NO : Used Source Site In Description
@SirCryptomind tho the other markets were resolved correctly, I think this is a misresolve in this case because the creator specified in desc that this resolves to the YTD numbers on the linked page
@Stralor Do you specifically see differing numbers(screenshot it maybe?) with this source in the description than what all other sources say in other markets and wiki and government sources say?(all the same or within a few acres of each other).
If all other sources say NO, why would this source say YES?
@Stralor YTD numbers are wrong. If you go with literal reading of this market, I can see you getting a YES but intent resolves NO.
It is the same source used for other markets.
@SirCryptomind terrible mobile screenshots:
and yeah, intent resolves NO, but this particular market was weird and wrong, completely by accident.
@Stralor anyway, I'm heavily invested in this one so I have no intention of forcing the issue with mod powers. I would have resolved it YES, but I think considering the controversy it would stir up I would recommend N/A. But if NO holds I'll be fine; I can eat the loss.
@Stralor Those are the same numbers I was looking at, seems like this should resolve YES.
I’m not sure why this market is tanking or what the previous commenter is arguing for… by every measure I can see, more acres burned in 2023 compared to 2022, and in answer to previous questions, @VivaLaPanda said they would use the best number available, not the original (provisional) number cited.
@BlueDragon Let me try again. The original provisional number was 363,917 and the current one is 363,939. The "YTD" page is not updated, probably by an amount roughly equal to the Mosquito fire. I know Wikipedia isn't a source for this market, but whoever maintains that info also thinks the 363,939 is the correct number for 2022:
I put 2K mana on this earlier today while being bored on a work meeting and doomscrolling Manifold. Why are government websites so bad? The Cal Fire thing has contradictory info on it (which I noticed before buying NO, but I'm just guessing which # is wrong). Section above the black line is their YTD numbers, while section below is from their 2022 full year recap:
Fires in 2022 stopped in October, so YTD 2022 should be equal to full year 2022...but as displayed, is not. Looks like retards are to blame, not updating the YTD number correctly (my guess).
@AlQuinn then I find a 2022 pdf with a different 2022 total:
Incidentally, the difference above between the "YTD" and full year recap is 76K acres, which is almost exactly the number of acres burned in the Mosquito fire, which appears to have been the last active major fire last year (started 9/6/22 ended 10/26/22), so the only explanation I have now is that the YTD number is missing that fire, and the pdf in this comment was updated at some point before everything was finalized.
Buying more NO. Everything is consistent with the "YTD" number for 2022 being wrong. It would be nonsensical for burned area to be revised downward by >20% so long after the fact and without explanation. This should be the correct 2022 number to compare:
https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2022
I suppose if this market is resolved ultra-autistically and uses the very-likely incorrect YTD number page (assuming it is not corrected by then) I will lose the Mana, but oh well; NO is the right direction to bet given the clear intent of the question.
2022 wildfires -- 363,939 acres
AccuWeather meteorologists predict that in 2023, 400,000 to 1 million acres will burn in California.
As of June 11, 2023, a total of 1,392 fires have burned a total of 2,670 acres (1,080 hectares)
National inter-agency fire potential outlook: below-average wildland fires in California from June to September 2023
Year-to-date acres burned
for the US is 51% of the 10-year average, with a below average number of fires, about 82% of
average.
Below normal significant fire potential continues for the mountains and foothills of California during
June before retreating to the Sierra in July and just the southern Sierra during August and
September.
PREDICTION: Despite a switch from El Nino to La Nina weather patterns and increasing warming, this year had excess precipitation -> unlikely that fire acreage will exceed 2022 levels.