Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, a wildfire occurs in California that ranks among the top 10 largest wildfires in the state's recorded history, based on total acreage burned. The ranking will be determined using official data from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)
Background
The top 10 largest fires in California history by acres burned are:
August Complex Fire (2020): 1,032,648 acres
Dixie Fire (2021): 963,309 acres
Mendocino Complex Fire (2018): 459,123 acres
Park Fire (2024): 429,603 acres
SCU Lightning Complex Fire (2020): 396,625 acres
Creek Fire (2020): 379,895 acres
LNU Lightning Complex Fire (2020): 363,220 acres
North Complex Fire (2020): 318,935 acres
Thomas Fire (2017): 281,893 acres
Cedar Fire (2003): 273,246 acres
1,000Fire outlook by National Interagency Fire Center, issued June 1st.
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
Of particular interest, in May California had generally < 50% of its usual rainfall.
