Will a Manifold user successfully use deliberate incorrect resolution to make more than M$25,000 on a single market in the next 6 months

Ṁ893

Ṁ290

resolved Apr 11

Resolved

ALL

Basically will someone repeat https://manifold.markets/stone/will-there-be-a-report-button-withi and do even better

Will resolve YES if the user in question still has the funds after 7 days (i.e. if the resolution is overruled or the user is banned, this market will resolve NO)

Nov 8, 8:28am: ~~Will a Manifold user successfully use incorrect resolution to make more than M$25,000 on a single market in the next 6 months~~ → Will a Manifold user successfully use deliberate incorrect resolution to make more than M$25,000 on a single market in the next 6 months

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To my knowledge this should resolve NO. Any issues with that?

predicted NO

@VivaLaPanda Nope.

I will be banned before March 21, it's guaranteed

Hold on, if this market fraudulently resolves YES, then it will be a deliberately incorrect resolution, which (if it made the creator enough money) would make the resolution not fraudulent - meaning it should resolve NO, which means it is fraudulent, etc. Quick, someone get the dev team to add a PARADOX resolution category 😛

@AngolaMaldives Shh don't tell anyone

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I suspect this particular scenario is a good reason not to risk more than a small amount in any market made by a new or obscure creator.

will this market, if it turns popular enough, be itself an incentive for someone to try and do this?

@paleink potentially, but modulated by Manifold maybe putting in place ways to overrule deliberately incorrect resolutions.

Basically, this market is self-reinforcing unless the platform finds a way to credibly deter people doing this.

predicted YES

@VivaLaPanda at the same time, it reinforces the platform to address the issue

@o Yup!

Does it count if they make the mana from markets like this one rather than just their own?

@IsaacKing All the mana has to be from a single market. I guess if they convince another market maker to deliberately resolve incorrectly I'll count that if there's proof.

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