Will >100,000 people regularly use visual AR during everyday life by 2030
Basic
27
690
2031
75%
chance

As new AR devices come on the market, will people make them part of their everyday life?

The 100,000 number should be considered approximate, it's basically meant to exclude "enthusiasts" who use the devices even if it's not that practical. I would rank regular use to be something like "worn as much as you'd wear airpods".

Update: I would not include Pokemon Go because I don't think the AR elements are significant enough to count. To clarify some things that I would count:

  • Google Maps AR if widely used enough

  • AR game where the AR features are integral enough that the game can't be effectively played with them off

In general, if the thing in question is a dedicated device I'm much more likely to resolve YES than if the argument is that the device is a smartphone and some feature is AR heavy and widely used, but there are scenarios where I'd accept the latter, it just requires the AR to be functionally central

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What it means to be visual?

predicts YES

Re: dedicated devices: I would assume that it is more likely that AR will become most popular on non-dedicated devices; e.g., if Google Glass makes a big comeback for non-AR reasons, that would probably be a bigger boon to AR than if there is some weird AR Wii contraption.

"Based on Snapchat’s annual report, more than 200 million active users engage with augmented reality (AR) daily (Snap Inc., 2021)."

-- https://financesonline.com/snapchat-trends/

I wouldn't be surprised if this is true today, depending on your criteria. Pokemon Go has 100 million downloads. Of those, I'd bet that at least 100k people use it ~daily.

"as much as you'd wear airpods" - do you consider this "as much as you listen to audio", or are you thinking of people who leave airpods in pretty much all day whether they're in use or not?

@josh with regards to the former, I'd not count Pokemon Go because the AR stuff is not really a core part of the game (most people I know who play turn it off).

Furthermore,. wrt the second one, I'd accept something a bit less complete than the people who use them all day. More like, "this is a thing you pretty much always take with you, even if you don't use it constantly."

predicts YES

@VivaLaPanda what about filters for snapchat/ticktock or even zoom backgrounds ?