In a world where societies are in turmoil, politics runs in endless circles, and our problems keep piling up, we have to ask: why do we behave so distracted and tribal?
Eventually, we'll be forced to admit that we lost precious time to this nonsense.
But when we finally recognize the need for change, our splintered views (reality bubbles) will prevent us from uniting on a single blame.
Here comes the question โ straight out of a Star Trek episode, we might resort to bizarre scapegoats โ perhaps a mysterious virus, invasive spores, alien ghosts, or even a weird unknown energy state.
This absurd narrative would serve as a way to deflect the shame of our collective failure. Can we bet on such a common scapegoat scenario emerging by 2030?
๐
Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Foreign DNA as a trigger:
Any introduction of foreign DNA into the human system qualifies.
This includes, but is not limited to, bacteria, mites, or any other microbes.
The outcome does not have to be a virus specifically.
Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for Multiple Qualifying Answers:
If multiple scapegoats qualify, the market will resolve based on the first cause to receive major media coverage.
Media evaluation will include outlets from the left, center, and right.
1,000I don't know, @MalcolmOcean , but as an older white male liberal-leaning scientist, I feel like I get scapegoated from both sides.
@MalcolmOcean I have a "soft arbitrage" target for your Jesus option. See the end of this market's description.
@Quroe haha amazing. Tho now we need a market on whether Trump will develop more heads, or feet like a bear.
@ViorelPETCUVorL Previously unknown, as in, not identified by market creation?
If genetic relation can be traced to a known disease at market creation, but it mutated significantly enough to be a new strain, would that count?
@CraigDemel What if it's not planet-killing, but still an asteroid with the capability of doing considerable, city-leveling damage?
@Quroe A couple Hiroshimas is not nearly enough, but I would count anything capable of taking out all Waffle Houses.
Additionally, what if there are no correct answers -- none?
Edit: problem solved. I added the "no such scapegoat will manifest" option.
@Quroe if it resolves sooner (people come together sooner, as if ! ๐คฃ ) then we will resolve it sooner.
@Quroe I intended the answers to be mutually exclusive, but lets use another criteria to select one if multiples occur. Let's say the first cause to have major media coverage (left, center, right).