Will an AI get a perfect SAT score before 2025?
2024
87%
chance

Resolves YES if an AI can gain a perfect score of 1600 on an SAT under standard conditions before Jan 1, 2025, resolves NO otherwise.

Sort by:
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingis predicting NO at 86%
PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney
PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney

@PatrickDelaney tangentially related

salix avatar
salixbought Ṁ25 of NO

I think that the SAT verbal section is something of a specific learned skill. You sort of learn to intuit which answer is "most defensible" rather than "correct." Getting an 800 seems hard without some kind of fine-tuning or prompt engineering. Of course it could happen by chance as a perfect score allows some incorrect answers.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahamis predicting NO at 82%

@salix it's entirely luck above 6 or 700, you can do the distribution and see its luck

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingis predicting NO at 75%

These comments

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

For math problems yes?

For the bullshit verbal section? No. Not even for humans more than once.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham for both sections for a combined 1600 perfect score

vluzko avatar
Vincent Luczkowbought Ṁ70 of YES

@MarkIngraham it's definitely possible to get perfect scores on the verbal section consistently

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi that would be the Turing test, you would never use an ai in a stupid way if it was that powerful

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham the english section is nowhere close to a Turing test in terms of difficulty, and GPT-4 can already reach over 700 for it. The only question is whether or not they can polish the AI to do so before 2025.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi not even humans can pass it. 700 is a mediocre score

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham plenty of people get 800 on the english score

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi a few thousand people have ever done that and only once by chance

TommyMorriss avatar
Tommy Morrissis predicting YES at 81%

@MarkIngraham not true. a few thousand high schoolers every year do it, and adult sat tutors do it consistently. (they brag about it to attract clients)

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham um no? i already have a couple of friends who got it last year and personally i only missed it by one question. its hard but definitely not impossible? where did u get ur stats?

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@TommyMorriss sat tutors are considered scams by college board

@victor 1% get 1550 and if of 1.7 million .1% get 1600 that's 119,000 over the life of the test, and getting a perfect score assuming you get 40 of 50 questions and guess the rest is 0.1% by chance.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi also its impossible to "miss by one question", you're allowed to miss several questions so you actually missed about five but the norm for that year was favorable.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham u do realize how big a number 119,000 is right? im only asking for an AI that can do it once. out of the roughly 2 million students who do it per year roughly 500 get a perfect score so its far from impossible.

TommyMorriss avatar
Tommy Morrissis predicting YES at 83%

@MarkIngraham I know two people who got perfect scores, I only missed 7 questions. My tutor was significantly better than me, there is no doubt in my mind that he could ace it. We did practice sessions in parallel, I would miss two, he would miss zero and be finished in half the time. Granted, he knows all the tricks, but thats the point: you can master this skill like any other.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham no. you can. i saw my score report from the College Board itself.

TommyMorriss avatar
Tommy Morrissis predicting YES at 83%

@VictorLi @MarkIngraham you get both numbers, your score/1600 (curved), and your question score. My year there was 0 points of wiggle room for an 800 on math, my friend's year there was 2 points. I think you have to pay extra to get question-level information, but I certainly got it.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@TommyMorriss 800 math is easy, it's the verbal that's subjective and useless

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@TommyMorriss so you got a perfect score? Congrats but it happens to .1% of people by chance.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi 119,000 out of the 119 million that took it since 1956, and it's actually 35,000. And if you eliminate half the questions and get the average white score you get that by chance.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham why would i want the average white score?

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi because it's 100% luck, if you have 2000 friends 2 of them get perfect scores.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham also i dont really care if its "subjective and useless", the point is whether or not an AI can do it before 2025. please dont entangle ur personal emotions with a purely technical timelines market

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

It would not be able to better than chance, if it did it would be a hyperintelligent AI that would kill all humans.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham i can assure u it is not, coming from a high school senior himself. most of the perfect scorers i know have consistent gotten perfect scores on the practice tests, and like @TommyMorriss said many personal tutors can do it consistently themselves. getting a perfect on the SAT is not very difficult the main question is whether or not they can finetune it enough to do it

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham no, it will not be smart enough to kill all humans, it takes a lot more than a perfect SAT score to destroy humanity, believe me.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi https://www.albert.io/blog/sat-score-calculator/ you can try here. Raw score 36 is a 600. Two questions free so 38. Then you guess 10 by chance. Then correct for two questions not reached. Then you need to guess two more.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi your anecdote proves by point and it's only possible by chance.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham i literally used this same one when prepping for the SAT myself, i know how it works. i really dont want to drag this conversation out any longer right now so if u believe it can't be done then feel free to bet NO and make some profit

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi OK well I already bet no, I'm just skeptical of your claims as I statistically proved it happened by chance and you can't do statistics yet have a perfect sat score.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@MarkIngraham u havent bet NO yet

VictorLi avatar
Victor Li

@VictorLi if ur confident in ur claims then put ur mana where ur mouth is and bet NO, since the market is over 80% right now u can make some pretty sweet profits so why not?

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

@VictorLi d'oh I hit the wrong button and ran out of mana

TommyMorriss avatar
Tommy Morrissis predicting YES at 82%

I did not ace it, 7 questions off was far from a 1600 my year. look at some recent curves here:
https://old.reddit.com/r/Sat/comments/u48fol/official_march_23_2022_sat_score_release_and/

-7 was above average for me. on practice tests i would usually get -12 or -10, i did like 4 full ones

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahambought Ṁ5 of NO

@TommyMorriss just retake the test 4000 times and get a perfect score by chance then only publish that result

TommyMorriss avatar
Tommy Morrissis predicting YES at 82%

@MarkIngraham I mean there is some chance, but its silly to think it doesn't correlate. If I took it 4000 times I would probably get a 1600. I took it 4 times and got within 40 points of myself each time