Will the number of prostitutes in Germany increase or decrease in the five years after the advent of AGI?
4
180Ṁ40
2100
Decrease51%

It is said prostitution is the oldest profession. One must wonder if it will be the last profession. In speculations about the nature of post-agi labor, some people wonder if sex work is automatable.

I have chosen Germany because prostitution is legal and regulated there, so we can rely on government statistics rather than speculation. It is also large enough to give a fairly representational sample size. The timing of "the advent of AGI" will be defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market below. Statistics for numbers of prostitutes will be taken from the last full year before the advent of AGI and compared with those of five years later. If the Metaculus market resolves on April 8, 2031, statistics from 2030 will be compared against those from 2035.

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