Any future positions that he makes after this market is created do not count. The positions that qualify are:
The LK-99 paper not replicating by EOY
GPT-4 having over a trillion parameters
Threads not having more users by EOY
Manifold love not having 1000 daily users by Valentine's
Biden being the Dem nominee
Taylor Swift being at the Super Bowl
AI not wiping out this market (and humanity) before this market can resolve No
If any of these predictions do not come true, this market resolves Yes. If none of them have resolved against them by December 31st, this market resolves No. This market does not take into account whether they sells their positions between now and the end of the year. If a market does not resolve by year's end, this will not change the market: I only care if a market has resolved against their position by year's end.