Will Joshua lose one of his current >10k mana position before 2025?
13
98
290
2025
10%
chance

Any future positions that he makes after this market is created do not count. The positions that qualify are:

  1. Vivek Ramaswamy not being on the Republican ticket

  2. SCOTUS overturning the Colorado decision to remove Trump from the ballot

  3. Reddit not rebranding to rationalussy

  4. No agreement between major ai players to slow down

  5. Travis Kelce breaking Swifties hearts by not proposing at the super bowl

  6. Neither Joe nor Donald dying before the election

  7. Travis Scott getting crushed (not winning) at the Grammies

  8. AI not replacing 50 million jobs by year's end

  9. Donald or Joe winning in November (he has >10k on both sides, so I'll consider him to be betting that one of the two will win)

  10. Manifold love not hitting 1000 users by Valentine's Day

  11. Peter Miller out-debating Saar Wilf

  12. Threads not having more users than Twitter by the end of the year

  13. Joe being the Democratic nominee

There are a few markets with >10k invested across different positions, but I'm only looking for positions that are worth that much. If any of these predictions do not come true, this market resolves Yes. If none of them have resolved against him by December 31st, this market resolves No. This market does not take into account whether he sells his positions between now and the end of the year. If a market does not resolve by year's end, this will not change the market: I only care if a market has resolved against his position by year's end.

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bought Ṁ20 NO

These all seem like pretty solid bets, but I don't know about that rationalussy one, 10K could be a little too risky there

bought Ṁ50 NO

LOL

@VerySeriousPoster it looks like you're going through the Masters people doing this since you also did UFTG, I'd suggest working your way down the overall leaderboard if you want to find people with the most large positions:

https://manifold.markets/leaderboards

@Joshua Thanks for the tip. I said in another thread that masters is a great place to find bonds. Then I wondered if that was actually true.