Any future positions that he makes after this market is created do not count. The positions that qualify are:
Vivek Ramaswamy not being on the Republican ticket
SCOTUS overturning the Colorado decision to remove Trump from the ballot
Reddit not rebranding to rationalussy
No agreement between major ai players to slow down
Travis Kelce breaking Swifties hearts by not proposing at the super bowl
Neither Joe nor Donald dying before the election
Travis Scott getting crushed (not winning) at the Grammies
AI not replacing 50 million jobs by year's end
Donald or Joe winning in November (he has >10k on both sides, so I'll consider him to be betting that one of the two will win)
Manifold love not hitting 1000 users by Valentine's Day
Peter Miller out-debating Saar Wilf
Threads not having more users than Twitter by the end of the year
Joe being the Democratic nominee
There are a few markets with >10k invested across different positions, but I'm only looking for positions that are worth that much. If any of these predictions do not come true, this market resolves Yes. If none of them have resolved against him by December 31st, this market resolves No. This market does not take into account whether he sells his positions between now and the end of the year. If a market does not resolve by year's end, this will not change the market: I only care if a market has resolved against his position by year's end.
Related questions
@VerySeriousPoster it looks like you're going through the Masters people doing this since you also did UFTG, I'd suggest working your way down the overall leaderboard if you want to find people with the most large positions:
@Joshua Thanks for the tip. I said in another thread that masters is a great place to find bonds. Then I wondered if that was actually true.