Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Darline Graham (also known as Darline Graham Nordone) officially runs in the 2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina and wins the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to NO if any of the following occur:
She does not officially file to run, or withdraws her candidacy before the elections.
She runs but loses the special Republican primary scheduled for August 11, 2026.
She runs but loses the general election on November 3, 2026.
The primary source of truth for resolution will be the official election results published by the South Carolina State Election Commission or, in the immediate aftermath, consensus race calls from major news organizations (e.g., AP News, Decision Desk HQ).
Background
Following the death of long-serving U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, 2026, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham, to fill the vacancy for the remainder of the term. Because Lindsey Graham had already won the Republican primary in June 2026 before his passing, South Carolina will hold a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to choose a new nominee. On July 20, 2026, Darline Graham announced she is officially running to seek a full term for the seat. The winner of the Republican primary will face Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews in the November general election.
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What’s your prediction for the final result? Do you think third party candidates get much of the vote?
@Jack1 My friends tend to lean left, so I can't say my views on the ground are particularly representative, but seems like Darline Graham is not particularly popular, even among GOP. Some people are voting her just because of the Trump factor, don't think anyone really likes her specifically. Annie Andrews isn't the best candidate, a lot of my Dem friends actually dislike her but they see it as a "lesser evil" type situation. Third party candidates? Probably not... actually because this race is actually competitive I bet you see more Dem turnout than normally.
@Jack1 liberal friends seem resigned to the fact that Graham will win simply because of her name. I don’t think third party candidates are getting any airtime. The fact that Andrews got Trump’s attention suggests republicans are aware the race is competitive. I’m betting optimistically but I’m not really optimistic.
@MachiNi why do they think the name helps? Does the nepotism not hurt?
And was Lindsay graham popular? I thought his primary performance was weak
@Jack1 It’s pure name recognition. I wouldn’t be surprised if some people had not registered Lindsay died and thought this Is the same person. He was not popular among liberals for sure but I suppose Republicans liked that he became one of Trump’s guard dogs.
@Jack1 Lindsey graham was pretty popular I'd say so the name recognition will definitely help. I'm bullish on the nepotism aspect dragging her down
@Jack1 I honestly don't know who those people are ;-; to be fair though they were both governor before I was born, so maybe it resonates with older people?
@MachiNi I hope you know I meant how partisan it is, and it's a common expression but alr, whatever floats your boat
@JamesBrownNRnn yup but it's kinda rude to everyone who lives in my state. just a bit. don't forget that 43% of south carolinians voted for biden. the margin between red and blue state is very slim
@Qoiuoiuoiu Since when is 43% a large number?
That's like saying 43% of New York/Illinois voted Republican... that doesn't make it not a blue state.
Also sorry if it's "rude" but "facts don't care about your feelings" isn't that your side of the aisle's saying
@JamesBrownNRnn actually Trump got 43% of the vote in New York in 2024 and that’s rightly considered significant.
@MachiNi That's what I said, New York would never go Republican regardless, anyone saying so is insane.
"You don't have to be a dick" Keep in mind, I have only said the FACT, that South Carolina would never go Democratic in today's climate. That's a fact, facts aren't rude or mean.
@Qoiuoiuoiu "South Carolina would never go democratic, and even a republican Hitler wouldn't change that fact"
If South Carolina would NEVER go Democratic and we both agree to that, than by logical default, the worst person on earth would win as long as they're a Republican.
That's just logic.
Yet again "Even Hitler would win" is a common phrase, why are you hating on me for using it, when it's used thousands of times a day
@MachiNi Alright well than if you believe South Carolina would go Democratic in 2026, than why don't you bid no on this market?
@JamesBrownNRnn you realize there’s a difference between ‘not never’ and this year, right? I’m betting YES in the Andrews market. Just arbitraging here.
@MachiNi Can you show when I said the word "Never" BEFORE I said the word "in today's climate"
If you can I'll venmo you $500
That's what I said, New York would never go Republican regardless, anyone saying so is insane.
@MachiNi Good effort, but that was said in the same exact comment, I said the phrase "in today's climate", Key Word: Before (I even uppercased it to stick it in your head but it obviously didn't work) NOT at the same time
Also when was New York and South Carolina the same state.
@JamesBrownNRnn send me the money or I’ll track you down and have my nazi friends do nazi things to you. We’re all nazis here as you know.
@JamesBrownNRnn technically you wrote the word ‘never’ twice before the words ‘in today’s climate’ in that comment. That was the contract. So send the money. Seriously. Send the money.