Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Darline Graham (also known as Darline Graham Nordone) officially runs in the 2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina and wins the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to NO if any of the following occur:

• She does not officially file to run, or withdraws her candidacy before the elections.

• She runs but loses the special Republican primary scheduled for August 11, 2026.

• She runs but loses the general election on November 3, 2026.

The primary source of truth for resolution will be the official election results published by the South Carolina State Election Commission or, in the immediate aftermath, consensus race calls from major news organizations (e.g., AP News, Decision Desk HQ).

Background

Following the death of long-serving U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, 2026, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham, to fill the vacancy for the remainder of the term. Because Lindsey Graham had already won the Republican primary in June 2026 before his passing, South Carolina will hold a special Republican primary on August 11, 2026, to choose a new nominee. On July 20, 2026, Darline Graham announced she is officially running to seek a full term for the seat. The winner of the Republican primary will face Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews in the November general election.