MANIFOLD
Will there be partial outages on all Anthropic services on February 5th, 2026?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ284
resolved Feb 6
Resolved
NO
41

Resolves true if https://status.claude.com shows partial or full outages across all four listed services again tomorrow, February 5th, 2026, like it has today and yesterday.

Market context
Anthropic
Service Outage
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ43
2Ṁ31
3Ṁ9

People are also trading

Will Anthropic publicly acknowledge a significant/systematic degradation of Claude Opus 4.5 by February 29, 2026?
3% chance
Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?
11% chance
Anthropic 'falls behind' by July 2026?
7% chance
Will Anthropic lose any of its cofounders by the end of 2026?
33% chance
Will Google acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2026 ?
12% chance
What will be the next major event for Anthropic?
Will Anthropic cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
3% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?
41% chance
Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030?
69% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?
27% chance
Sort by:

I'm getting 529 on the API right now

@satchlj interesting. All they have in the status page right now is this:

@Vergissfunktor yeah I saw that
I guess it wasn't that big of an outage

I am curious whether the outages are related to preparations for releasing the new model, as is rumoured to happen soon.

People are also trading

Will Anthropic publicly acknowledge a significant/systematic degradation of Claude Opus 4.5 by February 29, 2026?
3% chance
Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?
11% chance
Anthropic 'falls behind' by July 2026?
7% chance
Will Anthropic lose any of its cofounders by the end of 2026?
33% chance
Will Google acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2026 ?
12% chance
What will be the next major event for Anthropic?
Will Anthropic cause human extinction in the next 5 years?
3% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?
41% chance
Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030?
69% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?
27% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy