Market Overview:

This market predicts which jobs will be replaced by AI and when it will happen. Each job option has a target year when we'll check if AI has taken over most of those roles in the United States.

Resolution Criteria:

• The year in each option (e.g., 'Judges <2040') is the target replacement deadline and the resolution date for that specific option.

• For user-added options without a year, the market creator will assign a resolution deadline exactly one year after that option is added.

• Each job type uses its standard description from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) or O*NET when available.

• 'Job replaced' means at least 60% of filled U.S. roles for that job title have core duties performed without direct human involvement, as measured by government data or at least two reputable industry-wide surveys.

• For dispute or ambiguity, resolution may be delayed up to three months to gather new/clarifying data before a final decision.

• All reasoning and data sources will be posted publicly before resolution.

• If, by the resolution date, there is insufficient data or no authoritative way to determine the replacement status for an option, that option will resolve as N/A (not applicable). All reasoning, sources consulted, and steps taken will be posted publicly to justify the N/A resolution.

Edge Case Handling:

• If automation leads to splitting/redefining a role, the original job's major core functions must be 60% automated/eliminated for YES resolution.

• 'Augmented' roles do not count—the role must be replaced/outnumbered by AI systems.

• If precise job counts cannot be determined, two concordant sector-wide surveys suffice for resolution.

• All participants can dispute unclear resolutions within 14 days of the creator's proposed resolution, after which the decision is final.

• All sources and logic used in resolution decisions will be publicly posted for transparency.

Terms:

• Core duties: The main tasks that define what someone in that job does every day

• AI (Artificial Intelligence): Computer systems that can perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence

• BLS/O*NET: Government databases that officially describe what different jobs involve.

Edit: Final close date of market will be postponed as long as there are open options.