Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if human extinction occurs before January 1, 2028, 00:00 UTC, as a direct or indirect consequence of arms sales to Taiwan (e.g., escalating cross-strait conflict leading to an all-out global nuclear exchange that eradicates humanity).

If human extinction has not occurred prior to January 1, 2028, this market resolves to NO.

Note on resolution mechanism: Because human extinction would eliminate all market participants and platform operators, this market functions effectively as an existential risk insurance/hedging contract. In practice:

• If humanity survives to January 1, 2028, the market resolves to NO.

• If human extinction occurs, resolution to YES is theoretically valid under the market definition, though practical settlement would be impossible.

Background

The United States supplies defensive arms to Taiwan primarily under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979 and subsequent policy declarations. The People's Republic of China (PRC) views Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory and routinely objects to foreign arms transfers to Taipei, warning that such actions cross red lines regarding sovereignty.

Existential risk analysts studying great power conflict often examine escalation pathways where a military confrontation over Taiwan between nuclear-armed states (principally the US and China, with potential involvement of other nuclear powers) could escalate through tactical nuclear use to strategic exchange, severe nuclear winter, and potential human extinction.