Nuclear weapon explosion in Taiwan through 2029
8
190Ṁ3292030
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Multiple major western news outlets such as the BBC, Wash Post, etc. must report that a nuclear weapon has exploded on or near (<10miles) Taiwan's main island, any time through end of 2029
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026?
21% chance
Nuclear weapon explosion in Taiwan through 2039
11% chance
Nuclear weapon explosion in Taiwan through 2026
4% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
4% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
2% chance
Nuclear weapon detonations by 2033
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
13% chance
Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
23% chance
A nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029
28% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
17% chance