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Argentina is the 2022 World Cup winner. Argentina is undefeated in their last 25 matches, including 14 wins and 11 draws. Argentina has a better-attacking record than Uruguay, scoring 15 goals in their last 10 matches. Also, Argentina is the first place in Conmebol World Cup qualifiers; Uruguay is second (on top of Brazil). Argentina has a 60% winning record at home in World Cup Qualifiers, while Uruguay has a 50% winning record away from home.
These elements suggest Argentina will win this match.
@BrayanCastaneda Thanks for these insights and I would agree on your analyses. Beyond these statistics, Argentina's top five scorers have played total of 43 games this season, averaging a goal practically every other game. In contrast, Uruguay's top five scorers have combined for 12 goals in 26 games, a pace of 0.45 goals per game. Although top scorers of both teams have similar goal-scoring rates, I think Argentina, having recently won the World Cup and being in high shape, will dominate the game. Furthermore, when the squad qualities are compared based on their entire value, Argentina's total value is €789.00 million, whereas Uruguay's is €486.30 million.
https://www.transfermarkt.com/argentina/leistungsdaten/verein/3437/reldata/%262022/plus/1
https://www.transfermarkt.com/uruguay/leistungsdaten/verein/3449/reldata/%262022/plus/1
NO. Based on 197 official World Cup matches between Uruguay and Argentina, the probability of an Argentine win is higher when the two teams meet in the qualifying stages of the World Cup. In their previous meetings, Argentina won approximately 46.7% of the time, a significantly higher rate than Uruguay's 28.9%. Argentina has always had the advantage in this long-standing rivalry, as evidenced by statistics. Although soccer remains an unpredictable sport and there are many external elements that can affect the outcome of a match, historical data indicates that Argentina has a statistical advantage over Uruguay.
References:
Argentina v Uruguay / Head-to-Head / Albicelestes. (n.d.). https://albicelestes.com/rivals/uruguay
Wikipedia contributors. (2023). Argentina–Uruguay football rivalry. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina%E2%80%93Uruguay_football_rivalry#:~:text=This%20derby%20is%20the%20most,48%20ended%20in%20a%20draw.