Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if Artemis II launches no earlier than 6:24 p.m. EDT on April 1, 2026 or earlier. The market resolves NO if the launch does not occur before April 1, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. EDT. Resolution will be confirmed via NASA's official launch updates or official NASA announcements.

Background

Artemis II is NASA's first mission with crew aboard the SLS (Space Launch System) rocket and Orion spacecraft. The ten-day mission will carry NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen, on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth. It will be the first crewed mission beyond low Earth orbit since Apollo 17 in 1972.

Considerations

The mission has experienced multiple delays: the earliest launch window was set for early February 2026, but a January winter storm delayed preparations, a liquid hydrogen leak during the wet dress rehearsal pushed the date to March, and a helium flow issue on February 21 triggered a rollback to the Vehicle Assembly Building, delaying the mission to April at the earliest. The weather forecast for launch day shows an 80% chance of favorable weather conditions with primary concerns being cumulus clouds, ground winds, and solar weather.

This description was generated by AI.