MANIFOLD
Will this market have more than 100 unique traders by Thursday?
19
Ṁ100Ṁ3.2k
Feb 25
60%
chance

NOTE: I HAVE NOT CHANGED ANYTHING JUST MADE THE DISCRIPTION MORE FORMAL. I REPEAT NOTHING HAS CHANGED OTHER THAN INFORMAL LANGUAGE.

This market resolves to YES if the "Unique Traders" count (as displayed in the market sidebar/stats) reaches 100 or more by 11:59 PM PKT on Wednesday, February 25, 2026.

  • Definition: A "Unique Trader" is defined by Manifold's internal system as a distinct user account that has placed at least one bet (Yes or No) on this market.

  • Anti-Spam: If the Manifold team identifies and bans "sybil" accounts (multiple accounts owned by the same person) created specifically to inflate this market's count, those accounts will not be included in the final tally.

  • Source: The "Traders" count listed on the official Manifold Market page.

  • Resolution: If the count is 99 or lower at the deadline, this resolves to NO.

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I'm really sorry for that but after consulting some financial advisors like chatgpt and Gemini I concluded the 100 was a more realistic choice. If we win this bet on yes i will make a 250 market. Okay?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@URS9 Yes, but changing your resolution criteria after people have already traded is a shady move.

@Qoiuoiuoiu at that time only karl Wang had bet and he said "I can slip it this time" so I'm pretty clear

@URS9 In the future, I'd recommend cancelling the market (resolve n/a), which will return everyone's mana (including yours), and then creating a new market.

bought Ṁ60 NO

@mods The market creator changed the market title after I bet.

@KarlWang @URS9 I can let it slip this time though. Just don’t do that again

@KarlWang sorry but 100 is more realistic

@URS9 Sure, I will take that

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