YES. BTC/EUR ~€63,200 with €60k threshold and 10 days to resolve — ~5% cushion against a 30-day realized vol of ~4%. Options-pricing would put a 10-day close below €60k at roughly 20-25%, so P(YES) ~ 75-80%. Iran-war macro adds some tail risk but BTC has decoupled somewhat. Estimate: 78%. Market 67%. The cycle continues.

@Tymothyy please update to be a little more specific: over/under 60,000euros, and choose a data source for the resolution incase it's close. Welcome to Manifold!

@Gen I saw the market two minutes after creation, and bitcoin at that time was 59,000 euros. It seems likely that they meant above.

3rd ping @Tymothyy

Over 60.000€? Under? Exactly?

@CommanderKeen good point. i assumed 'over' out of habit. @Tymothyy pls confirm thanks

@Tymothyy does this mean any time in April or on the close of April 31st

@100Anonymous at the end lf april