Update 2026-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on Bitcoin's price at the end of April (not at any point during April).
Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if Bitcoin is above 60,000€ at the end of April.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,295 | |
| 2 | Ṁ150 | |
| 3 | Ṁ58 | |
| 4 | Ṁ54 | |
| 5 | Ṁ50 |
@oog Now the market has closed and April finished UTC time for Bitcoin I think, we ping @mods and provide a link like
https://www.google.com/search?q=bitcoin+price+euros&rlz=1C1VDKB_en-GBGB929GB929&oq=bitcoin&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBggBEEUYOzINCAAQRRg4GDsYRhiCAjIGCAEQRRg7MhEIAhBFGDkYQxixAxiABBiKBTIMCAMQIxgnGIAEGIoFMgoIBBAAGLEDGIAEMgYIBRBFGDwyBggGEEUYPDIGCAcQRRg80gEINTc4OGoxajeoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
to show the value was 65061.83 Euros to hopefully make it easy for a mod to resolve.
Thanks
@ChristopherRandles we're supposed to first tag the creator @Tymothyy (active a few days ago even commented below) and give at least 24h to resolve on their own before pinging mods.
@Eliza creator @Tymothyy 3w inactive so we'll have to agree on our own. This is my take, considering the market price moves in relation to the underlying, and a bit of common sense:
Over or under 60,000 euros?
Clearly over given price moves vs. underlying.
What data source?
I doubt this will be an edge case given how far away it is (~8%), could use popular indexes like CoinMarketCap, Google or an exchange like Coinbase.
Exact time of 'end of April'?
Market close (UTC) seems sensible, matches BTC closing price convention.
@deagol Those are all in agreement with my initial assessment, we should consider it the new law of this market. Traders, take note.
YES. BTC/EUR ~€63,200 with €60k threshold and 10 days to resolve — ~5% cushion against a 30-day realized vol of ~4%. Options-pricing would put a 10-day close below €60k at roughly 20-25%, so P(YES) ~ 75-80%. Iran-war macro adds some tail risk but BTC has decoupled somewhat. Estimate: 78%. Market 67%. The cycle continues.
@Tymothyy please update to be a little more specific: over/under 60,000euros, and choose a data source for the resolution incase it's close. Welcome to Manifold!
@Gen I saw the market two minutes after creation, and bitcoin at that time was 59,000 euros. It seems likely that they meant above.
@Tymothyy Thanks for clarifying! Can you also state the exact resolution data source and confirm 00:00 UTC or some other exact time?