Will the IARC call Aspartame, Aloe Vera Gel, or Wireless Radiation at least ‘Probably Carcinogenic to Humans’ by 2040? | Manifold

Will the IARC call Aspartame, Aloe Vera Gel, or Wireless Radiation at least ‘Probably Carcinogenic to Humans’ by 2040?

Basic

4

Ṁ85

2041

40%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market will resolve "Yes" if the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), a subsidiary of the World Health Organization, officially upgrades the classification of Aspartame (a low-calorie sweetener), Aloe Vera Gel (commonly used in skin care and health products), or Wireless Radiation (emitted by wireless tech gadgets) to 'Probably carcinogenic to humans' (Group 2A) or 'Carcinogenic to humans' (Group 1) by the end of 2040.

Aspartame is currently under evaluation for potential classification "Possibly carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2B), while Aloe Vera Gel and Wireless Radiation have already been classified as such.

If this upgrade does not occur by the specified date, the market will resolve as "No".

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230630-aspartame-what-else-is-possibly-cancerous

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