Resolves YES if a credible empirical argument can be made that at some point at least 50% of all Americans who are age 30-40 own cryptocurrency.

IMPORTANT CLARIFICATIONS:

• This market only cares about Americans aged 30-40

• Resolves only to the earliest applicable option (the 'ever' in the title is clickbait)

• Judging resolution will be biased in favour of a YES resolution (and biased towards the earlier options)

More Clarifications:

• There does not need to be a study specifically targeted at adults aged 30-40; if it seems likely that a majority of adults possess cryptocurrency, that's good enough

  • Can only resolve to the final NO option if it's clear the number never approached 50%

• I am allowed to trade, but I will maintain a good faith effort to only bet as a person pessimistic about cryptocurrency

  • This is meant to reduce conflict of interest a bit, when combined with this market's policy of resolving with a bias towards YES

  • If at any point the market is more pessimistic about cryptocurrency than my own beliefs, I will then be effectively banned from trading

• This market only counts people who generally intend to benefit from possessing the cryptocurrency (such as by selling it or spending it); a marketing stunt that involves giving a tiny amount of cryptocurrency to every American wouldn't count

• This market intentionally does not specify a specific cryptocurrency; it will count any currency based on the blockchain that fits the spirit of the term "cryptocurrency" as it is used today

Funds and Derivatives:

This market can count partial ownership of cryptocurrency via a larger asset (such as shares in a crypto ETF, or shares of a company with crypto holdings) if the following conditions are met:

• At least 69% of the value of the asset must come from cryptocurrency

  • If a person has a pension fund and the pension fund includes crypto, the pension fund itself must be made up of 69% crypto, since the pension fund itself is what the person is directly entitled to

• The partial ownership must be traceable to some specific holding of cryptocurrency

  • A promise to acquire cryptocurrency in the future doesn't count

  • Betting on a prediction market that the price of cryptocurrency will go up doesn't count

Obviously in practice it will never be possible to carefully go over millions of Americans individually to see if they fit this market's fairly specific criteria. Resolution will be based on my personal best guess as to whether or not the criteria has been met, with bias towards YES.