Will Biden still be the presumed Democratic nominee on Saddam Hussein's birthday? (April 28th)
resolved Apr 28

Resolves NO if the nomination market drops below 70% for twenty four hours straight:

Resolves YES at this market's scheduled close date.

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@mckiev @Luca @zn @SemioticRivalry @Puggy @AmmonLam @Ayers @NathanpmYoung @Base @woody @KatjaGrace @FlipPidot

Hope you don't mind the ping! You folks are the biggest Biden nom doubters on the main market. You are the people whose opinion I'm hoping to collect with this market. Are you expecting Biden to drop out soon so that a new candidate has time to build a campaign, or are you expecting a surprise during the August convention?

@houstonEuler @TeriDiPiano

I just edited the description so that it resolves if it goes below 70% instead of below 50%. If that ends being the difference in how this market resolves I will pay both of you out

@Tumbles I’m starting to seriously doubt this prediction, but every ounce of common sense in me, tells me the Democrats should go with someone other than Joe Biden. The odds of trump beating him are higher then Trump beating another candidate. Any other top democrat besides Kamala. I think that there might be adults in the room that might make a good decision about joe being the nominee come April or May, but they’re gambling big with Joe.

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