When Sailing comes out in Oldschool Runescape, many players will predictably move to try to be the first to reach 200m experience in it. However, there remains an open question of how stiff the competition will be. Which is to say: will the player who gets there first be dramatically ahead of the pack, or only slightly?

This is a hard question to operationalize in easily-observable-and-resolvable form. So instead I'm asking the somewhat simpler/cruder question of whether the first two players to reach 200m Sailing experience will do so within a week of one another. This isn't a perfect proxy for the central question, but it should hopefully be at least a moderately useful one.

I plan to resolve this question based on the historical data recorded by Wise Old Man, for purposes of avoiding the need for excessive moment-to-moment highscore-monitoring on my part.