Manifold is currently planning its big pivot towards attempted real-money payouts for successful predictions. This will likely draw some new users in; it will also likely drive away some old users. Let's try to quantify how we expect those effects to compare with one another!

Result will be based on the 7-day average of active Manifold users as listed for June 30th, 2024 on Manifold's stats page. If the page no longer exists, or no longer provides relevant information, and no equivalent information-stream has been added elsewhere, the market will N/A if that's still possible, else remain closed-but-unresolved indefinitely until Manifold staff provide an appropriate alternative. If user-count is below 500 or above 4000, market will resolve to 500 or 4000 (respectively).