IMDb keeps a list called "IMDb Top 250 Movies: As rated by regular IMDb voters."
Here are the top 10 as of April 2024:
1. The Shawshank Redemption
2. The Godfather
3. The Dark Knight
4. The Godfather Part II
5. 12 Angry Men
6. Schindler's List
7. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
8. Pulp Fiction
9. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
10. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
When will a different movie replace one of these?
(A simple change in order among these top 10 will not resolve this market.)
Edit:
The intention of the market is to predict long-term changes to the top-10 list, not transient changes.
It is common for new releases to appear on the top-10 list in a transient way. A new release will only be considered "stably included" on the top-10 list if it is three months past its theatrical release date. This might lead to a delayed resolution for certain time brackets listed on the market; for instance, if a new release appears on the top-10 list on December 31, 2024, then the "2024" time bracket will resolve three months after the film's release, or when the film has dropped out of the top-10, whichever comes first.
By contrast, if an older film (more than 3 months past its release date) breaks into the top-10 list, then the relevant time brackets can resolve immediately to YES.
@mattyb Yeah, this is essential. Oppenheimer was 9.1 at the start iirc.
New movies are usually 0.5-1.5 above what their rating will be once everything settles.
(Endgame was 9.3 for a while.)
@mattyb Ah, good point. The intention of the market is that it should be more or less stable.
How about: Movies won't be considered "included" on the top-10 list until they are at least one month after their general box office release. Would that do it? Longer, shorter period of time?
Alternately, could say a movie needs to stay on the top-10 list for [a minimum period of time] before it can be considered "included".
But I think I like the first condition better, because it doesn't require us to know when a movie first appeared on the list.
@JonathanMannhart Very helpful. I'm starting to fully realize the problem. Here are some more examples, starting with yours:
Avengers: Endgame: was in top-10 for days 2-13 after release
Spider-Man: No Way Home: was in top-10 for days 1-10 after release
Dune Part Two: was in top-10 for days 4-9 after release
Inception: was in top-10 for more than two months after release
Toy Story 3: was in top-10 for about 1.5 months after release
But they all fell away. The current top-10 are all old movies.
@Tsunombie I think if the market is intended to capture long-term changes, it would probably need quite a bit of a timing delay for a movie to count.
Inception stabilised at number 14, so that's already pretty close. That implies that 2-3 months is probably a good timeframe?
Agree. Okay, here's what I propose:
Change title from:
"When will IMDb's top 10 films include a different movie (starting 4/2024)?"
to
"When will IMDb's top 10 films stably include a different movie (starting 4/2024)?"
Add to description:
Edit:
The intention of the market is to predict long-term changes to the top-10 list.
It is common for new releases to appear on the top-10 list in a transient way. A new release will only be considered "stably included" on the top-10 list if it is three months past its theatrical release date. This might lead to a delayed resolution for certain time brackets listed on the market; for instance, if a new release appears on the top-10 list on December 31, 2024, then the "2024" time bracket will resolve three months after the film's release, or when the film has dropped out of the top-10, whichever comes first.
By contrast, if an older film (more than 3 months past its release date) breaks into the top-10 list, then the relevant time brackets can resolve immediately to YES.
@Tsunombie you may want to N/A this market and start again. When I bet here, the market had very different rules and description.