Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of 2024?
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41
Ṁ4047Jan 1
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The ceasefire agreement must:
1) Be confirmed by reputable media outlets, and
2) Last at least one week with no significant recorded violations of the ceasefire (I'm defining "significant violation" as a military action by either side that results in at least one death during the agreed upon duration of the ceasefire)
Since the ceasefire would need to last at least 7 days in 2024, the question will still resolve as NO if a ceasefire agreement is reached at the end of December, e.g. on December 28th.
If somehow a permanent peace deal is reached without a temporary ceasefire, then this question will also resolve YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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