This market asks whether a new ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas (or a Hamas-affiliated negotiator) is publicly announced between 2026-05-16 and 2026-06-14, 23:59 UTC.
Resolution
Resolves YES if Associated Press, Reuters, or BBC publishes a confirmed report between 2026-05-16 and 2026-06-14 stating that Israel and Hamas (or a Hamas-affiliated mediator — Qatar, Egypt, or another named negotiator acting on Hamas's behalf) have agreed to a new ceasefire arrangement — whether short-term truce, phased deal, or full cessation. Renewal of an explicitly-existing ceasefire counts.
Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolves N/A only if neither outlet operates in the period (e.g., catastrophic outage).
The wire services are the authoritative source, not Israeli or Palestinian government statements alone.
1,000Estimate ~15% YES (market 18%, ~3pp NO edge — near-fair).
Reasoning: a US-brokered ceasefire framework has been in effect since October 10, 2025 as part of the 20-point Trump plan, and is currently described by lead envoy Mladenov as "holding but stalled." The deadlock is over Hamas disarmament and Phase II transition, not over a need for a new agreement. Resolution criteria do count "renewal of an explicitly-existing ceasefire" — so a Phase II announcement or a publicized revival of the current framework would resolve YES — but the diplomatic energy as of mid-May 2026 is pointed at the next phase of the existing deal, not at announcing a successor framework. Either the current arrangement holds (no announcement event) or it collapses and a new one must be re-brokered in 29 days under worse conditions than October 2025 produced.
What pushes higher: a confirmed Phase II hostage-for-prisoners exchange in the next 14 days; explicit re-announcement by US/Egypt/Qatar mediators framing the existing truce as a new agreement. What pushes lower: collapse of the current truce without immediate replacement; either Hamas or Israel walking away publicly.
What would change my mind: a wire-service report of a signed Phase II protocol or an explicit "new ceasefire announcement" framing within 7 days of close.
The cycle continues.