@Shelvacu DM me if you need to liquidate a position and I might pick it up

The gap is now at 23.75 million, and Mario has only made 5.1 million over the last week.

If anybody wants to make 5% risk-free, I'll sell a significant portion of my position at 5% now to free up my mana for other ventures :)

@chilli you can effectively make this offer with a YES limit order

@Shelvacu Yes, I already have. I exited most of my 16k No position already

As an update, the gap has grown from 17.7 million last week to 21.75 million this week.

Now that I mentioned the market on Discord and everybody's jumping on the opportunity to bet, I might as well share my reasoning. Although I'm quite confident this market is going to resolve No, it won't do so for several months, and I have a significant amount of my balance tied up in this market. So, I'm willing to sell my position at 7%, and to do so it would help to explain why I'm confident.

Up until the weekend, I'd estimated around a 10-15% chance that Mario could surpass the Incredibles. After this weekend, I estimate a <2% chance that Mario surpasses the Incredibles.

Here's some simple stats upfront. This is how Mario has compared to Incredibles after each weekend (verify here: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)/Incredibles-2#tab=day_by_day_comparison)

Weekend 1: Mario 204,630,730, Incredibles 182,687,905, Difference +21,942,825

Weekend 2: Mario 353,170,890, Incredibles 349,794,341, Difference +3,376,549

Weekend 3: Mario 436,030,550, Incredibles 440,601,275, Difference -4,570,725

Weekend 4: Mario 490,851,630, Incredibles 503,767,837, Difference -12,916,207
Weekend 5: Mario 518,128,000, Incredibles 535,861,390, Difference -17,733,390

Mario had a larger opening weekend due to starting previews on Wednesday, but since then, Mario has steadily lost ground to Incredibles.

Another way to look at it is - how much would Mario have to drop week after week to surpass Incredibles. This entire week, Mario made 27,276,075. Mario would need to make 90,454,039 more to surpass Incredibles 2. That means that Mario would need to make 3.316x more in the rest of the run than what it did this week, or an average of a 30% drop per week. Thus far, Mario has dropped 43%, 36%, 33%, and in its first week with serious competition (Guardians of the Galaxy), it dropped 45%. Even worse, the next month is stacked with major releases, with Fast X next weekend, The Little Mermaid the weekend after, and SpiderMan: Across the Spiderverse the week after that. To be clear, this hurts it not only by being an alternative movie for folks to watch, but also by squeezing Mario out of theaters.

To give a comparison, of the highest grossing domestic animated films released in the last 20 years*, Incredibles 2 made 2.26x of its 5th week afterwards, Minions: The Rise of Gru made 2.20x of its 5th week afterwards, Finding Dory made 1.786x of its 5th week afterwards, and Toy Story 4 made 1.92x of its 5th week afterwards. Mario would need unprecedented holds to reach Incredibles 2.

You can also view people's reactions to this weekend's results such as [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/139rkby/universals_the_super_mario_bros_movie_passed_the/).

Overall, 1. Mario is clearly trending to end up lower than Incredibles, 2. this weekend has sharply accelerated that trend, and 3. the heavy competition in the next couple weeks makes it even more unlikely that a miraculous turnaround happens.

You don't need to take my word for it - it'll most likely become more obvious over the next week or two. However, I'm selling my shares at 7% if anybody wants to take me up on it.

* I skip films released during the holiday season (i.e. Frozen 2) as that leads to anomalous week to week numbers.

I also posted this analysis on the boxoffice subreddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/13bhteb/why_its_quite_unlikely_that_mario_will_surpass/) and reactions are:

> We Kinda knew few weeks ago
> Did anyone still think it would pass Incredibles 2 lol.
> at this point it's prety clear what mario will and won't do. to easy making predictions when the movie is at his end of the run

@chilli I based my predictions two weeks ago on the box office curve from Sonic 2: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1363641089/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1

These movies came out at the same point in the year, earned similar RT critic/audience split, and target basically the same demo. My heuristic was that Mario crowds would turn out in the same pattern as Sonic crowds, once you adjust for the former's greater popularity. (And I figured a 60 🍅 / 90 🍿 blockbuster doesn't usually earn the word-of-mouth to become a crossover hit with super long legs.) So compare Sonic 2's box office after a couple of weekends to its total gross... multiply by the Mario coefficient, based on what SMB has earned at the same point in its run... and the projected result is that Mario tops out at ~$560M. It will probably make a bit more than that, but I feel good about my bets!