Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more domestically than any Pixar film by 2024?
closes Jan 5

The highest grossing Pixar movie domestically is 'Incredibles 2', which took in $608,581,744 at the box-office. Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' beat that number?

The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column.


If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $608,581,744, this market will resolve to "YES"

This market will resolve to "NO" if once the December 31, 2023 "To Date" number is finalized it hasn't reached $608,581,744, or if the run ends and the movie stops being carried by cinemas without it having reached that point.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

What will the film "Bottoms" achieve on the Rotten Tomatoes Critics Score 30 days after wide release? (READ DESCRIPTION)
Will the Ahsoka Show be Generally Well-Received by the Star Wars Community?
Chizardium avatarChizardium
50% chance
Will Insomniac's Spider Man 2 score 90 or higher on Metacritic?
BokiLee avatarBoki
46% chance
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film?
Tripping avatarTripping
34% chance
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' get nominated for an Oscar in any category at the 96th Academy Awards?
Tripping avatarTripping
45% chance
Will the Marvels get a higher audience rating than Captain Marvel did on rotten tomatoes
JackIngram avatarJack Ingram
51% chance
Will the sequel to The Super Mario Bros. Movie gross more worldwide than the original after one year of its release?
kirby avatarKirby Iwaki
18% chance
Will "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes" have a >70% Rotten Tomatoes score two weeks after release?
BoltonBailey avatarBolton Bailey
64% chance
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more worldwide than any other movie released in 2023?
Tripping avatarTripping
4% chance
Will Super Mario Bros Wonder or Super Mario RPG have the higher Metascore?
Kraalnaxx avatarKraalnaxx
73% chance
Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film?
Tripping avatarTripping
8% chance
Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?
ZviMowshowitz avatarZvi Mowshowitz
39% chance
Will the third Sonic The Hedgehog movie get over a 65% on Rotten Tomatoes?
asmith avatarAndrew Smith
58% chance
Will Hades 2 be as good as the original, according to Metacritic?
MichaelBennett avatarHanddara
47% chance
Will The Three-Body Problem in Minecraft have a higher IMDb rating than Netflix's 3 Body Problem?
Meter avatarMeter
92% chance
What will the position of the highest movie on the IMDB top 250 list that I haven't seen be at close?
Will "The Mandalorian" season 4 have a audience score of >=80% on Rotten Tomatoes?
ScipioFabius avatarScipio Fabius
31% chance
Will Gladiator 2 achieve a TOMATOMETER score of ≥70%?
HenriThunberg avatarHenri Thunberg
49% chance
What critic score will "The Marvels" have on Rotten Tomatoes one week after its US release?
NcyRocks avatarN.C. Young
75% chance
Will Severance Season 2 have a Rotten Tomatoes critic score > 95%?
jdoppler avatarjdoppler
37% chance
Sort by:
MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicts NO

@Shelvacu DM me if you need to liquidate a position and I might pick it up

chilli avatar
chillipredicts NO

The gap is now at 23.75 million, and Mario has only made 5.1 million over the last week.

If anybody wants to make 5% risk-free, I'll sell a significant portion of my position at 5% now to free up my mana for other ventures :)

2 replies
Shelvacu avatar
Shelvacupredicts NO

@chilli you can effectively make this offer with a YES limit order

chilli avatar
chillipredicts NO

@Shelvacu Yes, I already have. I exited most of my 16k No position already

chilli avatar
chillipredicts NO

As an update, the gap has grown from 17.7 million last week to 21.75 million this week.

chilli avatar
chillibought Ṁ0 of YES

Now that I mentioned the market on Discord and everybody's jumping on the opportunity to bet, I might as well share my reasoning. Although I'm quite confident this market is going to resolve No, it won't do so for several months, and I have a significant amount of my balance tied up in this market. So, I'm willing to sell my position at 7%, and to do so it would help to explain why I'm confident.

Up until the weekend, I'd estimated around a 10-15% chance that Mario could surpass the Incredibles. After this weekend, I estimate a <2% chance that Mario surpasses the Incredibles.

Here's some simple stats upfront. This is how Mario has compared to Incredibles after each weekend (verify here: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)/Incredibles-2#tab=day_by_day_comparison)

Weekend 1: Mario 204,630,730, Incredibles 182,687,905, Difference +21,942,825

Weekend 2: Mario 353,170,890, Incredibles 349,794,341, Difference +3,376,549

Weekend 3: Mario 436,030,550, Incredibles 440,601,275, Difference -4,570,725

Weekend 4: Mario 490,851,630, Incredibles 503,767,837, Difference -12,916,207
Weekend 5: Mario 518,128,000, Incredibles 535,861,390, Difference -17,733,390

Mario had a larger opening weekend due to starting previews on Wednesday, but since then, Mario has steadily lost ground to Incredibles.

Another way to look at it is - how much would Mario have to drop week after week to surpass Incredibles. This entire week, Mario made 27,276,075. Mario would need to make 90,454,039 more to surpass Incredibles 2. That means that Mario would need to make 3.316x more in the rest of the run than what it did this week, or an average of a 30% drop per week. Thus far, Mario has dropped 43%, 36%, 33%, and in its first week with serious competition (Guardians of the Galaxy), it dropped 45%. Even worse, the next month is stacked with major releases, with Fast X next weekend, The Little Mermaid the weekend after, and SpiderMan: Across the Spiderverse the week after that. To be clear, this hurts it not only by being an alternative movie for folks to watch, but also by squeezing Mario out of theaters.

To give a comparison, of the highest grossing domestic animated films released in the last 20 years*, Incredibles 2 made 2.26x of its 5th week afterwards, Minions: The Rise of Gru made 2.20x of its 5th week afterwards, Finding Dory made 1.786x of its 5th week afterwards, and Toy Story 4 made 1.92x of its 5th week afterwards. Mario would need unprecedented holds to reach Incredibles 2.

You can also view people's reactions to this weekend's results such as [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/139rkby/universals_the_super_mario_bros_movie_passed_the/).

Overall, 1. Mario is clearly trending to end up lower than Incredibles, 2. this weekend has sharply accelerated that trend, and 3. the heavy competition in the next couple weeks makes it even more unlikely that a miraculous turnaround happens.

You don't need to take my word for it - it'll most likely become more obvious over the next week or two. However, I'm selling my shares at 7% if anybody wants to take me up on it.

* I skip films released during the holiday season (i.e. Frozen 2) as that leads to anomalous week to week numbers.

2 replies
chilli avatar
chillipredicts NO

I also posted this analysis on the boxoffice subreddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/13bhteb/why_its_quite_unlikely_that_mario_will_surpass/) and reactions are:

> We Kinda knew few weeks ago
> Did anyone still think it would pass Incredibles 2 lol.
> at this point it's prety clear what mario will and won't do. to easy making predictions when the movie is at his end of the run

Jonagold avatar
Jonagoldpredicts NO

@chilli I based my predictions two weeks ago on the box office curve from Sonic 2: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1363641089/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1

These movies came out at the same point in the year, earned similar RT critic/audience split, and target basically the same demo. My heuristic was that Mario crowds would turn out in the same pattern as Sonic crowds, once you adjust for the former's greater popularity. (And I figured a 60 🍅 / 90 🍿 blockbuster doesn't usually earn the word-of-mouth to become a crossover hit with super long legs.) So compare Sonic 2's box office after a couple of weekends to its total gross... multiply by the Mario coefficient, based on what SMB has earned at the same point in its run... and the projected result is that Mario tops out at ~$560M. It will probably make a bit more than that, but I feel good about my bets!