Resolves YES if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the DNC's official statements.
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@Tripping Does this count only actual states, or does it count non-states which award delegates as well (e.g. American Samoa)?
Biden leaked audio https://beckernews.com/leaked-audio-surfaces-of-biden-reassuring-former-ukrainian-president-that-burisma-scandal-evidence-was-stopped-50730/ ... worth a few % boost to yes I think
Arbitrage opportunity here:
https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-rfk-jr-win-delegates-from-new
@NcyRocks ah well i assume if hes gonna win one state its gonna be NH, where kennedy estate is located, so thats the 'one state' of this bet
@Blomfilter oh nvm, its missing the a modifier, so i suppose just winning a single delegate would resolve yes
@Blomfilter More than that, most if not all Democratic primaries award delegates to every candidate who gets over 15% of the vote. It's very possible RFK Jr. will get, say, 20% to Biden's 75%, winning delegates but not coming close to winning.
Axios Political article on NH flopping to Kennedy:
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/15/iowa-new-hampshire-biden-lose-2024-primaries-election
20% of democratic vote in some recent polls.
he just got jacks endorsement, I think at least one state is possible
https://twitter.com/jack/status/1665463756149645313