Rating decay is real

This market is way way overpriced, the game lost its leading spot many days ago and is now a full point behind, and ratings strongly tend to decay.
A back of the envelope calculation shows that even if the next 10 reviews are 10/10, it still won't take the leading spot

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what do you think the correct probability is?

@jacksonpolack somewhere around 5-10%

I just plotted every score from super mario galaxy and baldurs gate 3 into a spreadsheet, and I was off by one, the tenth 10/10 review will push it above smg exactly, if any of them is less than 98 bg3 will still be second

@Lewton What you are not taking into account is that quite a few gaming news outlets have preliminary point deductions in their tests for things that don't work yet but likely will work in the near future. They did that with Baldurs Gate 3 as well. Baldurs Gate 3 gets its first big patch around August 27th which will likely fix the reasons for a lot of those preliminary point deductions resulting in updated higher scores amongst the results already in the OpenCritics metascore.

@CertaintyOfVictory I do not think this is very common, and the effect would have to be quite strong. But I see your point

How many reviews do you expect to be revised?