Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be the highest rated game of all time on OpenCritic at the end of August 2023?
resolved Sep 1

At the time of market creation, Baldur's Gate 3 is currently listed as the highest scoring game of all time on OpenCritic:


If it is still the highest rated game (it must be ranked 1 on the linked list) at the end of August 2023, this question will resolve YES.

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predicted NO

Rating decay is real

bought Ṁ25 of NO

This market is way way overpriced, the game lost its leading spot many days ago and is now a full point behind, and ratings strongly tend to decay.
A back of the envelope calculation shows that even if the next 10 reviews are 10/10, it still won't take the leading spot

predicted NO


predicted NO

what do you think the correct probability is?

predicted NO

@jacksonpolack somewhere around 5-10%

predicted NO

I just plotted every score from super mario galaxy and baldurs gate 3 into a spreadsheet, and I was off by one, the tenth 10/10 review will push it above smg exactly, if any of them is less than 98 bg3 will still be second

predicted YES

@Lewton What you are not taking into account is that quite a few gaming news outlets have preliminary point deductions in their tests for things that don't work yet but likely will work in the near future. They did that with Baldurs Gate 3 as well. Baldurs Gate 3 gets its first big patch around August 27th which will likely fix the reasons for a lot of those preliminary point deductions resulting in updated higher scores amongst the results already in the OpenCritics metascore.

predicted NO

@CertaintyOfVictory I do not think this is very common, and the effect would have to be quite strong. But I see your point

How many reviews do you expect to be revised?

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