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MANIFOLD
Mario Kart World MEGAMARKET
12
Ṁ975Ṁ7.5k
2030
8%
It will have sold over 18.99 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart 7) by the end of FY2026
8%
It will have sold over 37.38 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart Wii) by the end of FY2026
92%
It will have sold over 18.99 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart 7) by the end of FY2027
20%
It will have sold over 37.38 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart Wii) by the end of FY2027
20%
It will overtake the sales figures of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the Nintendo Switch (not counting WiiU sales of Mario Kart 8) by the end of calendar year 2027
20%
It will overtake the sales figures of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the Nintendo Switch (not counting WiiU sales of Mario Kart 8) by the end of calendar year 2028
17%
It will overtake the sales figures of Mario Kart 8 (INCLUDING WiiU sales of Mario Kart 8 AND Switch Sales of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe) by the end of calendar year 2029
94%
It will be the best-selling Nintendo Switch 2 game (not including Nintendo Switch 2 edition games) at the end of calendar year 2026

Resolution source for sales figures will be based on the quarterly million-seller lists from the Financial Results Explanatory Materials.

Metascores will be checked sometime after 2 weeks after release, to give time for the bulk of initial reviews to come in and the score to settle.

Reminder that the Japanese Fiscal Year ends March 31 of that year.

Sales numbers comes from IR releases and https://www.nintendo.com/en-gb/News/2014/June/Mario-Kart-8-sells-more-than-1-2-million-units-worldwide-over-first-weekend-890619.html

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bought Ṁ25 NO

Nintendo’s November 5 results list Mario Kart World at 16.48m lifetime copies as of September 30, 2026, including 1.78m sold in April–September. That implies 14.70m at March 31, 2026, below both 18.99m and 37.38m. Could the two FY2026 sales thresholds resolve NO? Source: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2026/261105_3e.pdf (p. 16). I hold NO on the separate FY2027 >37.38m answer.

Game Awards 2025 markets can resolve. It won one award.

bought Ṁ195 NO

9.57M at the end of Sep 2025

1 million resolves yes.

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