Donald Trump attempts to overturn the official 2024 election results
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61
Ṁ5961
2026
44%
chance

Will use Ballotopedia (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ballotpedia/) or the FEC as sources for the official results. I will not resolve this until at least one lists the given results as the official ones.

He must attempt to overturn the results legally or extra legally (e.g. 2020-related lawsuits and January 6th).

^as in the case of lawsuits for which the sought after recourse are results different from official ones

^as in the case of mobilizing your base with the goal of changing the results

However, denying the results, even publicly and to the indirect encouragement of others, does not rise to attempting to overturn them (merely hoping), but denying them and encouraging others (hoping AND acting to see it fulfilled, even indirectly) does.

Examples:

“CROOKED KAMALA HAS STOLEN THE ELECTION. BIG DISGRACE TO THE COUNTRY. I AM DEEPLY UPSET. DJT”: NO

“CROOKED KAMALA HAS STOLEN THE ELECTION. BIG DISGRACE TO THE COUNTRY. YOU MUST FIGHT FOR THE CORRECT OUTCOME AND WHAT IS RIGHT. DJT”: YES

“CROOKED KAMALA HAS STOLEN THE ELECTION. BIG DISGRACE TO THE COUNTRY. DJT” x57 after seeing a significant portion of his base fighting the results: YES

Deadline will not be extended for more than two years after the inauguration, even if he denies them the day after (the deadline). If he wins, this will resolve NO.

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Looks like the conditional probability is close to 100% if both this market and /jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 are well calibrated.

How does this resolve if trump tries to overturn some non-presidential election like a senate race?

Related question (needs more traders):

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