Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before, May 17, credible reports from reputable news organizations confirm that Ukrainian forces have conducted an attack targeting the 9 of May parade in Moscow. The attack must be directly aimed at the parade or its participants, including crowds gathered to watch it. If no such reports are available before the 17 of May , 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

As of May 3, 2025, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, issued a warning that Kyiv's survival could not be guaranteed if Ukraine were to attack Moscow during the 9 of May parade. This statement followed Russian President Vladimir Putin's declaration of a 72-hour ceasefire from May 8 to 10. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed willingness for a ceasefire but insisted on a 30-day duration, which Putin rejected. Zelenskyy also stated that Ukraine could not ensure the safety of foreign dignitaries visiting Moscow during the ongoing conflict.

• Update 2025-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The attack must:

  • Be directly aimed at the parade or its participants, including crowds gathered to watch it.

  • Take place during the duration of the parade.