arbitrage opportunity https://manifold.markets/PeterNjeim/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-f13eee1bee08#OPaDph0QtdDPZmJ9OvbE

How does this resolve if there is no election in October 2025?

@JamesWattam Interesting question. Federal elections in Canada are legislated to happen every four years on the third Monday of October (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed_election_dates_in_Canada), so I consider it unlikely that the election would not occur. That being said, if an extenuating circumstance causes the election to be delayed by more than three months or cancelled, I'll resolve this to "N/A".

@TonyJackson more likely the next election will be earlier than October 2025.

Second sentence of that Wikipedia article: "However, the governor general, lieutenant governors, and commissioners still have the constitutional power to call a general election on the advice of the relevant first minister at any point before the fixed date."

Translation: The next federal election can happen at any time before October 2025. The Prime Minister only has to say the word.

Edit: Also from that Wikipedia article: "The court effectively found that the fixed election dates were not binding on the prime minister or legally enforceable by the courts."

@JamesWattam Good point - updated to just "next Canadian federal election" to capture this ambiguity in date