Resolution criteria

The next year of the fire horse will be 2026, running from February 17, 2026, through February 5, 2027. This market resolves YES if Japan's total number of births in 2026 is at least 10% lower than the average of 2024 and 2025 births, based on official data from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare or Statistics Bureau of Japan. Resolve NO if the decline is less than 10%.

Background

A superstition holds that "a woman born in the year of the fire horse has a strong temperament and shortens her husband's life". In 1966, the birth rate dropped 25% from the previous year, with approximately 500,000 fewer births than either the previous or following year. The low number of births was due to many young married couples consciously deciding to avoid pregnancy, with over 200,000 cases where couples used contraception to adjust the timing of pregnancies.

Considerations

Modern observers believe there will be very few families who care about this superstition in the next Fire-Horse year of 2026, given Japan's transformation into a modern, industrialized society with widespread access to contraception and different social attitudes compared to 1966. The superstition's impact may be significantly diminished by increased education, urbanization, and generational shifts in belief systems.