Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to the papal name chosen by the newly elected pope following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025. The name will be confirmed upon the official announcement from the Vatican, typically made from the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica with the proclamation "Habemus Papam" (We have a pope). If the elected pope retains his baptismal name, the market will resolve to that name. If no new pope is elected by the market's closing date, the market will resolve as N/A.

Background:

The tradition of popes adopting a new name upon their election began in 533 AD with Pope John II, who changed his name from Mercurius to avoid association with a pagan deity. Since then, it has become customary for popes to select a regnal name that reflects their intended focus or honors a predecessor. The most frequently chosen papal name is John, used by 21 popes, followed by Gregory (16), Benedict (15), and Clement (14). (en.wikipedia.org)

Recent popes have chosen names to signal continuity or to honor specific figures. For instance, Pope John Paul I combined the names of his two immediate predecessors, John XXIII and Paul VI, to signify his commitment to their legacy. Pope Benedict XVI selected his name to honor both Pope Benedict XV, known for his peace efforts during World War I, and St. Benedict of Nursia, emphasizing a commitment to peace and the Christian roots of Europe. (aleteia.org)

Pope Francis broke with recent tradition by choosing a name never before used, inspired by St. Francis of Assisi, reflecting his dedication to humility, peace, and care for the poor. (spokesman.com)

Considerations:

While there are no official restrictions on the choice of papal names, it is an unwritten custom that popes do not choose the name Peter, out of respect for St. Peter, the first pope. (catholic.com)

The selection of a papal name often provides insight into the new pope's priorities and the direction he intends to lead the Church. Therefore, understanding the historical and symbolic significance of potential names can offer valuable context for this market.