Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, Pope Francis has been officially considered for canonization by the Catholic Church. This includes any formal initiation of the canonization process, such as the opening of a cause for sainthood, declaration of heroic virtues, beatification, or canonization. If no such consideration has been documented by that date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Pope Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, served as the head of the Catholic Church from March 2013 until his death on April 21, 2025, at the age of 88. His papacy was marked by efforts to modernize the Church, emphasize social justice, and promote inclusivity. (ft.com)

The canonization process in the Catholic Church typically involves several stages:

1. Servant of God: Initiation of the cause for canonization.

2. Venerable: Recognition of heroic virtues.

3. Blessed: Beatification, usually requiring one verified miracle.

4. Saint: Canonization, typically requiring a second verified miracle.

Pope Francis himself introduced a new pathway to sainthood in 2017, known as "oblatio vitae" or the offering of life, recognizing those who have freely given their lives for others. (en.wikipedia.org)

As of May 2025, there have been no public announcements regarding the initiation of Pope Francis's canonization process. The timeline for such considerations can vary, and while some popes have been canonized relatively quickly after their deaths, others have taken centuries. For example, Pope John Paul II was canonized nine years after his death. (time.com)

Considerations

• Precedent: The speed of canonization processes for previous popes varies significantly, influenced by factors such as the individual's impact on the Church, public devotion, and the occurrence of attributed miracles.

• Papal Influence: Pope Francis's reforms and emphasis on social issues may influence the perception of his sanctity and the urgency of initiating his canonization process.

• Miracles: The verification of miracles attributed to Pope Francis's intercession will be a critical factor in advancing the canonization process.

Traders should monitor official Vatican communications and reputable news sources for any developments regarding the consideration of Pope Francis for canonization.