The rationale for this market is partly to gauge if Pope Leo will follow through on Francis' work on synodality.

Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if a special post-synodal Ecclesial Assembly is held in the Vatican in October 2028. Resolution will be confirmed through official Vatican announcements or credible Catholic news sources documenting the assembly's occurrence. The assembly must take place in October 2028 and be formally approved by Pope Leo. If the assembly is postponed, cancelled, or does not occur in October 2028, the market resolves NO.

Background

Pope Francis had approved a special ecclesial assembly for October 2028 to evaluate how Catholic communities worldwide have implemented the recently concluded Synod on Synodality recommendations. The final document of the synod on synodality, approved by Pope Francis in October 2024, emphasized synodality as essential to the church's mission and called for greater lay participation, mandatory pastoral councils and continued study on women in ministry and seminary formation. Evaluation assemblies at diocesan, national and continental levels from 2027 to early 2028 will assess progress before a final ecclesial assembly at the Vatican in October 2028.

Considerations

According to the apostolic constitution "Universi Dominici Gregis," which governs procedures when the papacy is vacant, a council or Synod of Bishops is immediately suspended when a pope dies or resigns. This means the assembly could be suspended if there is a papal vacancy before October 2028. Additionally, the gathering will not constitute a new synod but rather serve as the culmination of a structured three-year implementation process.