I have two markets going right now:

https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/should-i-make-a-dog-run-cash-prizes?r=VG9ueUJhbG9uZXk

https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/should-just-chill-and-not-make-a-do?r=VG9ueUJhbG9uZXk

Both offer the possibility of a cash prize, and both have seen surprisingly (to me) few trades. For instance, at the time of posting, the first market has zero NO traders, even though just 1 mana on no would make the trader eligible to get $100 for free. My theory was that a cash prize in this fashion would make people more willing to go big and boost trading, simply because it’s relatively cheap to recoup mana. Maybe I’m wrong through. Maybe people on Manifold value the mana they have more than the money it would cost to buy it back.

This market will resolve YES if it has more traders than the average of the two listed above by this market’s close. It resolves NO otherwise. In the event of a tie, it still resolves NO.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if this market receives more traders than the average number of traders across the two referenced markets when this market closes. It resolves NO if this market has equal to or fewer traders than that average, or in the event of a tie.

The average is calculated as: (traders in market 1 + traders in market 2) / 2

Traders are counted as unique accounts that have placed at least one bet in a market.