I have two markets going right now:
https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/should-i-make-a-dog-run-cash-prizes?r=VG9ueUJhbG9uZXk
https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/should-just-chill-and-not-make-a-do?r=VG9ueUJhbG9uZXk
Both offer the possibility of a cash prize, and both have seen surprisingly (to me) few trades. For instance, at the time of posting, the first market has zero NO traders, even though just 1 mana on no would make the trader eligible to get $100 for free. My theory was that a cash prize in this fashion would make people more willing to go big and boost trading, simply because it’s relatively cheap to recoup mana. Maybe I’m wrong through. Maybe people on Manifold value the mana they have more than the money it would cost to buy it back.
This market will resolve YES if it has more traders than the average of the two listed above by this market’s close. It resolves NO otherwise. In the event of a tie, it still resolves NO.
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if this market receives more traders than the average number of traders across the two referenced markets when this market closes. It resolves NO if this market has equal to or fewer traders than that average, or in the event of a tie.
The average is calculated as: (traders in market 1 + traders in market 2) / 2
Traders are counted as unique accounts that have placed at least one bet in a market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ217 | |
| 2 | Ṁ117 | |
| 3 | Ṁ70 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
People are also trading
I think theres a bad assumption here, I am simply unwilling to ever buy mana. I go bankrupt, thats it for my time here. If I care for mana more than money, that would not change
@OKanon I think that’s where I’m going with this. Essentially youre saying that you value the experience of playing with free mana more than than the money it would cost to buy the mana back because the mana you purchased wouldn’t be the same. Or consider it this way. Would you put up 3k mana for a fifty fifty bet if there was also a chance that by doing so you’d win $30. Clearly thats a positive expectancy bet no matter how you slice it, because money can be turned into mana. You might even be willing to bet into negative expectancy re: mana, because the chance of money would still make it net positive expectancy. And yet thats not whats happening, even though money IS fungible to mana. . . It interesting.
@TonyBaloney I don't know about other people, but I only care about mana to the extent it reflects my calibration and experience on Manifold markets, I don't care about mana for the sake of mana. This is my favorite video game right now, so I care about mana in the sense that people care about getting high scores in video games, but wouldn't care if you just hacked in a high score without actually achieving it
@spiderduckpig yeah. That what I’m saying. If given the chance to lose 100 mana on 50% bet or make 2.00 if you win (but not make any mana) would you take that bet. If you wouldn’t, then clearly you care more about the mana than the cash. It’s a positive expectancy bet, and you could purchase the mana back with your winnings.
@TonyBaloney I think the point is that everyone has a higher sell price than buy price for objects and things. I would sell my mana for 0.01$(per mana, not expected value on a one shot gamble), but I would buy mana only at 0$, which is what manifold regularly gives it to me at.
@OKanon this is my point. Yes. The only difference is I don’t really see the difference between selling mana and making a EV positive bet on a one shot gamble even though mana is free, people won’t exchange it for usd as quickly as they might. .