https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM25MAUSM156S
Male prime-age employment is a useful metric for looking at the economy over time because it avoids many compositional effects.
A lot of folks have predicted possible recessions. Right now this metric is at 86.2% and holding pretty steady since the rapid COVID recovery.
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Taking into consideration the latest statistical information from the month of September, we can see that employment among all age groups in the US remains almost unchanged with a small uprise.
Here is some information for September from the last months:
As you can see, the unemployment rates for men above 20 years stay pretty unchanged, and we can see that the net effect between August and September is small but on the positive side.
From the information on https://fred.stlouisfed.org/, we can see that the Working Age Population: Aged 25-54 is around 128,031,000 people, and we know from the information on the same website that 86.38% are employed. In order for the percentage to fall below 83%, the job market needs to lose around 4,340,250.9 people, which, with the current trend, seems almost impossible.
Taking the historical data and percentage change from the last two years for every motnh we can predict the trend with linear regression, we can see that overall the trend is up.
Based on the statistical analysis, I can assume that the trend will continue upward, but we have to take into account many other external factors that can influence the employment rate.
Still for the purpose of this bet I will say NO, because the number of people which need to left the labor force is to big for 2 month period. This think to happen somethin huge need to influence the whole market in my oppinion.