Last year, on the 19th July 2022, a new UK temperature record of 40.3 °C was set in Coningsby, Lincolnshire; 1.6°C higher than the previous record from 2019. Will this record be broken in 2023?
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Revisiting the simple calculation earlier, EFI forecast out now to July 20 shows nothing indicating this will resolve YES, so eliminating these days before then from the top 10, we should update from 5/32 to 3/32 ~= 9.4%. I am increasing my NO bet (0.9^29 * 370 mana ~= 17 mana)
@parhizj
Looking at long range and extended range forecasts it seems that the 6.3% chance is justified, increasing my NO bet:
https://manifold.markets/tkillestein/what-will-the-maximum-temperature-b?r=cGFyaGl6ag
@parhizj With EFI to August 6 showing nothing exceptional, and the extended range EFI showing only a slightly high abnormal temps in late August, I'm eliminating 1 more day from the most recent (1990s+ era) of the top 10 records: 1/32 ~= 3.1%. I am increasing my NO bet since the market is at 7%.
Bet size: ~519 mana needed to shift to 3.1%: 0.9^14 * 2270 ~= 519 mana. This is too much liquidity wise short term so I am capping it at 100.
Meteorologists forecast 45% chance ("2.3 times the normal figure") that this summer will be "hot". Plus there's an El Nino this year. --> You should bet against me!
@ArunJohnson From your article's headline: "There are no signs yet that last year’s 40C will be breached again, but meteorologists predict such peaks could become the norm"
Whether Britain will again experience a breach of the 40C level remains unclear, however. “There’s no strong indications for it,” said Mark Bevan, a senior Met Office adviser. “On the other hand, we saw it last year, so it’s obviously inherently possible. So never say never.”
Based on that article I wouldn't actually bet YES. the 2.3 times normal figure lacks (quantitative) context with relation to this question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_weather_records
Lets consider post 1990 a different era: for the past ~32 years, 5 records were broken. That leaves a probability of about ~16%. It looks like the median for when the records get broken (based on the last 10 record breakers is June 18). From this small sample, it looks like only 1 record was broken before July 11 (10%), so 90% of the records are broken after July 11. Examining forecasts for the next 7 days it seems very unlikely (>99%) a record will be broken, so we will just use the 90% figure in conjunction with 16% (excluding this next week) ~= 14.4%.
I would need to spend 900 mana to bet NO to adjust the market to this probability from 33% to 14%. Given that I am only about 2% confident in updating this prediction correctly every day using more reliable 24H forecasts and (keeping an eye on longer range forecasts) for the next 38 days out (90% confidence in each forecast each day: 0.9^38 ~= 2%), I am reducing this initial bet of NO to 18.
@TomFinnie I also vacillate sometimes being unsure how to size my bets given I expect to update several times (and that future bets are going to provide less return since the market will also update)