Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the highest daily maximum temperature recorded in the United Kingdom during July 2025. The official data from the UK Met Office will be used to determine the outcome. The temperature ranges are defined as follows:

• 34.7°C or below: Any maximum temperature less than 34.7C

• 34.8°C to 35.9°C: Maximum temperature between 34.8°C and 35.9°C, inclusive.

• 36.0°C to 38.9°C: Maximum temperature between 36.0°C and 38.9°C, inclusive.

• 39.0°C to 39.9°C: Maximum temperature between 39.0°C and 39.9°C, inclusive.

• 40.0°C or higher: Maximum temperature of 40.0°C or above.

The market will resolve to the option corresponding to the highest temperature recorded during the month. If multiple locations report the same highest temperature, the market will still resolve to the appropriate range. Official records can be accessed through the Met Office's climate data archive: Met Office Climate Data.

Background

The UK has experienced significant heatwaves in recent years. Notably, on 19 July 2022, the UK recorded its highest temperature to date at 40.3°C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire. (metoffice.gov.uk) In July 2025, the UK has already seen high temperatures, with 34.7°C recorded at St James's Park in London on 1 July. (upday.com)

Considerations

Given the recent trend of increasing temperatures and the occurrence of early heatwaves in July 2025, there is potential for higher temperatures later in the month. Traders should monitor weather forecasts and updates from the Met Office to inform their predictions.