News sites claim that Chapter 3 will release alongside 4 and 5 as a paid bundle in early- to mid-2023. Resolves YES if Chapter 3 comes out before the end of July. Does not depend on whether 4 and 5 come out at the same time.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ171 | |
| 2 | Ṁ62 | |
| 3 | Ṁ27 | |
| 4 | Ṁ17 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
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Resolves as NO. As of midnight Eastern time on August 1, 2023, Chapter 3 of Deltarune has not been released.
While trustworthy-ish users are typically only supposed to resolve markets after one week has passed, the market creator's profile explicitly asked for trustworthy-ish users to resolve their markets "immediately after resolution criteria are reached." As such, I'm resolving this market now rather than waiting a week.
💡 I am using my moderation permissions to resolve this market on behalf of the creator. This is according to the Manifold Markets unresolved markets policy found here.
If the creator returns and wishes to change the resolution, please reply to this comment and tag @DavidChee. The admins will then undo the resolution I chose and you may pick your desired resolution.
From the creator's profile:
I will be relatively inactive as of June 2023. DM me if you need something though. If possible, I would like admins/trustworthy users to resolve my markets immediately after resolution criteria are reached, without waiting for close + 7 days. I would like to get back into Manifold sometime later. If you see this bio after September 1, let me know (@me on discord)
Unless someone objects, I'm going to resolve this shortly after it closes tonight, as per the market creator's wishes.
(Given that I'm going to make a significant profit (~150 mana) when the market resolves as NO, as it almost certainly will, I would be willing to wait a week to resolve it and/or entrust the resolution to a different trustyworthy-ish user. I don't believe that I have a conflict of interest, since the resolution criteria are clear and objective, but I'm willing to recuse myself regardless should others insist.)
@ShadowyZephyr I mean, based on the newsletter, I don't think Chapter 3 is even finished yet, let alone polished. I'd bet this down to less than 1% if I could.
@ShadowyZephyr Unfortunately, all my NO limit orders on this market got filled at once and I ran out of mana. I have to sell/liquidate some other stuff before I can buy more NO here.
@evergreenemily No in deltarune videos I've seen they said translation is left but they choose to work instead of keeping the site accurate or pitch perfect.
@Aurust I'm just going off of what the official newsletter from Toby Fox said. I strongly suspect that it will be more accurate than any Youtube videos will.
@Aurust Unlike with company leaks, this is an indie game, so news sites don’t actually know any more than we do, they’re just speculating. All evidence points to chapter 3 being pretty much done, but 4 and 5 aren’t, and they will release as a bundle
@Aurust I have faith in Toby Fox! And that faith includes the faith that he'll wait until Chapter 3 is polished and fully completed before releasing it (though I agree with @ShadowyZephyr that a simultaneous release of 3, 4, and 5 is the most likely outcome - again, Toby himself has said this, and there's no indication that will change.)
@ShadowyZephyr Also, I generally don't care if I lose the bet of 255 M, I just was listening to what sounds right, like uploading a chapter then focusing on the next, instead of keeping the fans waiting too long and you know some people are gonna give up waiting and lose hype.
The most recent Undertale/Deltarune newsletter states that, as of the end of June, Chapter 3 is still not "playable all the way through," and still needs to be polished. In addition, Toby said that work on other chapters is being done while Chapter 3 is being finished, suggesting that a simultaneous release of 3, 4, and 5 is still planned.
@evergreenemily I don’t think it’s recent but I haven’t been keeping up. https://gamertweak.com/deltarune-chapter-3/
@TobyBusickWarner Huh. The most recent UT/DR newsletter from Toby Fox says Chapter 3 still wasn't quite finished as of this February, and that Chapters 3-5 will be released all at once. I expect Chapter 3-5 at some point in 2025.
@evergreenemily He also said that they’ve been working on all 3 simultaneously, but I agree that it’s unlikely for July.