11
120
Never closes
1.0
2/3~=0.67

This is essentially the same question as https://manifold.markets/KongoLandwalker/what-is-your-intuition-about-this-p but with higher initial probability (ie. closer to 1).

We have two different independent potential events A and B.

Somebody says: "Probability of A is 0.5. Event B is two times more likely than A."

What number comes to your mind as probability of B?

1) "Multiply the absolute value". 0.5*2=1

2) "Multiply the chances". There were 50 "tickets in a hat" and only 25 of them was suitable for event A, 25 invalid. (0.5=25/(25+25)). We multiply the suitable tickets and don't touch any other.

50/(50+25)=50/75=2/3

This question is just about how you interpret the phrase "more likely".

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

My initial thought on reading the question, was that "twice as likely" is what are the odds that the event doesn't happen twice in a row, so (1 - (.5 * .5)) = 75%.

This preserves the intuition for smaller probabilities which roughly add together (i.e. "twice as likely" for a 1% chance would be 1.99%).