What is your intuition about this probability comparison?
9
95
Never closes
0.2
0.169

We have two different independent potential events A and B.

Somebody sais: "Probability of A is 0.02. Event B is ten times more likely than A."

What number comes to your mind as probability of B?

1) "Multiply the absolute value". 0.02*10=0.2

2) "Multiply the chances". There were 50 "tickets in a hat" and only one of them was suitable for event A, 49 invalid. (0.02=1/(49+1)). We multiply the suitable tickets and don't touch any other.

10/(49+10)=10/59=0.169

This question is just about how you interpret the phrase "more likely".

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